Highest temperature in Munich on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a single real-world data point that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. In this system, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market currently implies a 0% chance for any specific outcome to be the winner, suggesting the resolution ranges are either misaligned with current trader expectations or the market has not yet formed a clear consensus on the frontrunner.

Historical July temperatures in Munich typically peak between 25°C and 32°C, with recent summers showing a tendency toward the upper end of that band due to warming trends. On Polymarket, a similar event for the same date shows 29°C as the leading outcome at 57%, followed by 28°C at 31%, indicating that traders generally expect a warm but not extreme day. The current 0% implied probability in this specific market likely reflects a structural issue rather than a belief that no temperature will be recorded, as Munich Airport invariably logs a daily maximum.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily history page for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) once the settlement window closes, as this is the sole resolution source. No announcements or schedules will alter the temperature itself, but delays in data publication could postpone resolution. Since the market cannot resolve until the first official reading is confirmed, participants must wait for the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline on 17 July 2026 before the outcome is finalised, with no intermediate catalysts to watch beyond the natural progression of the day’s weather.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.