Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world event that determines whether a YES or NO share in this prediction market pays out. A YES share profits if the temperature lands in the specific bracket you selected (for example, 28°C), while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. The market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for YES, suggesting traders believe that specific temperature is highly unlikely, yet historical data reveals Munich’s July highs typically range from 61°F to 87°F (roughly 16°C to 31°C), with average highs near 25°C [1][2]. This wide historical spread means that while 28°C is possible, it sits at the upper edge of normal variability, which may explain the cautious pricing.

Traders should monitor short-term weather forecasts and local climate announcements for Munich, as sudden shifts in solar radiation or cloud cover can push temperatures toward or away from the 28°C threshold. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 69°F and 90°F (21°C to 32°C), with the average high at 77°F (25°C), suggesting that extreme heat is plausible but not guaranteed [2]. Watch for updates from the National Weather Service or Wunderground, the official resolution source, as they may issue revised daily high predictions before the settlement window ends on 9 July at 12:00 UTC [6][9]. No major weather events are currently forecast to disrupt Munich’s climate, but rapid changes in atmospheric pressure or humidity could alter the outcome, making real-time data essential for informed trading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.