Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. For newcomers to prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market, while a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. Here, the crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome is 0%, suggesting traders are virtually certain the temperature will not match the target range, likely because historical data points to significantly higher or lower values than anticipated.

Historical records frame how to interpret this near-zero probability. LaGuardia’s average July high ranges from 81°F to 99°F, with the all-time peak reaching 107°F on 3 July 1966 [3][5]. Recent climatological normals show a maximum of 100°F recorded in 2021, while current conditions in early July 2026 show temperatures hovering around 91°F to 93°F [4][6][7]. Given that July 1 typically sees warm, humid air with scattered storms in the Northeast, the 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s target range and these established thermal patterns.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and storm schedules, as rapid shifts in temperature and heavy downpours could alter the day’s peak reading. A recent regional outlook for 1 July 2026 highlights warm, humid conditions with scattered storms in the Northeast, alongside strong storm cells and dramatic temperature swings elsewhere [2]. While no specific announcement for LaGuardia is yet published, the broader pattern of rapid weather changes and possible travel delays due to storms suggests volatility that could impact the final temperature measurement. Watch Wunderground updates closely as the settlement window approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.