Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in degrees Fahrenheit. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the selected range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. This market resolves based on the official daily high from Weather Underground for KLGA, with settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026.

Historical July normals for NYC hover near 85°F, but recent cooling advection has pushed current expectations lower, explaining the 0% crowd-implied probability for the highest possible range. Past heatwaves, such as the one in early July 2026 when LaGuardia hit 102°F and recorded a historic 94°F midnight, show how extreme spikes can occur, yet today’s forecast suggests daily highs between 73°F and 91°F, with the 82–85°F range now the market’s frontrunner at 55% [1][2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates on cloud cover, sea-breeze onset timing, and boundary-layer mixing depth, as these variables directly influence peak insolation and maximum temperatures. Small shifts in wind patterns or residual mid-level moisture could trim the day’s high, altering which range captures the outcome. Since odds update continuously as traders buy and sell shares, the collective view reflects the latest available data, making frequent checks essential as new forecasts emerge [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.