Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market resolves to the specific temperature range containing the day’s peak reading. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome reflects that this is a range-based market where traders are betting on which bracket will contain the actual temperature, not a binary event.

Historical data frames how to interpret the current odds. LaGuardia recently set a record for the warmest midnight temperature at 94°F during an East Coast heatwave, breaking a 2013 record [3]. Mid-July in New York City typically sees highs between 85°F and 95°F, though extreme heat events have pushed temperatures higher, with recent market activity suggesting 98–99°F as the frontrunner at 41% probability [1]. The next closest outcome, 96–97°F, holds 20% support, indicating traders expect a hot but not record-shattering day.

Traders should monitor forecast updates from the National Weather Service and real-time Wunderground readings, as the market resolves solely on data from that source [2]. While no specific announcements are scheduled for 15 July, heatwave forecasts and humidity levels will be the primary catalysts influencing temperature outcomes. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026, meaning all data must be recorded before that time. As odds update in real-time with trading activity, the collective view shifts as new weather information emerges [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.