Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport. A YES share means you believe the peak temperature will fall within the specific range the market is betting on, while a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. Currently, the crowd assigns a 66% probability to the YES outcome, reflecting a strong collective belief that the day will be notably hot.

Historical data frames this probability against recent extremes. LaGuardia recently set a record for the warmest midnight temperature in the city, reaching 94°F during a severe East Coast heatwave, surpassing the previous 93°F mark from 2013[3]. Furthermore, market frontrunners currently point to the 92–93°F range as the most likely outcome, with a 35% implied chance, suggesting traders anticipate temperatures hovering just below that historic midnight peak[1]. This context suggests the 66% YES probability is anchored in a pattern of intense summer heat rather than an outlier spike.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts and heatwave announcements from the National Weather Service, which tracks conditions at LaGuardia specifically[2]. The settlement depends entirely on the official reading from Wunderground for that station, making real-time updates from meteorological agencies the primary catalyst. Any shift in forecasted cloud cover or humidity levels before the settlement window closes on 16 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC will directly influence the final temperature and the market’s resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.