Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the selected condition, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. LaGuardia recently set a record for the hottest midnight temperature on the East Coast, reaching 94°F during a July heatwave, breaking a 113-year-old record [1]. The July 2026 heatwave across the East Coast was unprecedented, shattering records that had stood for up to 154 years and causing 29 fatalities in New Jersey alone [4]. Such extreme conditions suggest that temperatures in NYC on mid-July dates often exceed typical ranges, making the current 0% implied probability for YES appear unusually conservative given recent climate patterns.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source for this market [2]. While no specific announcements are pending, the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, meaning any temperature spike before that time will determine the outcome. The market’s frontrunner is currently the 86–87°F range at 35%, with 88–89°F at 30%, reflecting collective trader confidence in a moderate but not extreme peak [3]. Watching hourly temperature trends on the day itself will be critical as the clock ticks toward settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.