Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, New York City experienced a severe heatwave that pushed temperatures at LaGuardia Airport to record-breaking levels, with the day’s peak reaching 101°F. This real-world event determines the outcome of a prediction market where traders buy YES shares if they believe the highest temperature will fall within a specific range, and NO shares if they think it will not. A YES share pays out if the market’s resolution matches the trader’s selected range; a NO share pays out if it does not. In this case, the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome is currently 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the range being bet on.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. LaGuardia Airport hit 101°F on 2 July 1966, and Newark Airport reached 103°F on the same date in 1901, making these years the benchmark for extreme heat on this calendar day [2][5]. While a strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. has driven model consensus toward 100–103°F for NYC’s July 2 high, the market’s current frontrunner is the 98–99°F range at 27%, with 100–101°F at 22% [1]. This clustering indicates traders are pricing in record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend, yet the 0% YES probability implies the specific range being offered is unlikely to contain the actual peak.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Weather Underground and local forecasts, as the resolution source is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia for all times on 2 July [3]. Recent reports confirm that JFK Airport already reached 100°F by midday on 2 July, reinforcing the intensity of the heatwave [9]. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z, any revisions to temperature data published before the first datapoint for 3 July will be considered, but alterations after that point will not [1]. The key catalyst is the official daily high from LaGuardia, which will determine the final market resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.