Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. A YES share in this prediction market means you are betting that the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market organisers; a NO share means you believe it will not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests the market expects the temperature to be outside the offered range, likely because the range is set unusually high or low compared to typical July conditions.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. LaGuardia’s peak temperature reached 107°F on 3 July 1966, the highest ever recorded at the station [5]. However, recent July 2026 forecasts project daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows from 68°F to 83°F [3]. Just two days prior, on 2 July 2026, LaGuardia recorded 96°F while JFK hit 100°F, showing the heatwave is active but not yet matching the 1966 extreme [2]. This context suggests the market’s 0% YES probability may reflect a range set above the realistic 99°F ceiling for this year.

Traders should monitor daily weather announcements from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source. A key catalyst is the heatwave’s intensity: if temperatures surge beyond 99°F, the YES probability could shift rapidly. Recent live updates confirm the heatwave is ongoing, with LaGuardia reaching 96°F on 2 July [2]. Watch for any sudden spikes in the next 24 hours, as the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 3 July 2026, and Wunderground data will be the final arbiter [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.