Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City will determine the outcome of a prediction market, with traders betting on whether the heat reaches specific Fahrenheit ranges. In these markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests the market believes no temperature range will be met, though this likely reflects a misunderstanding of the resolution rules rather than actual weather expectations.

Historical data frames how to interpret such probabilities: LaGuardia recently recorded New York’s warmest midnight at 94°F, breaking the old record of 101°F with a peak of 104°F, just three degrees shy of the all-time high of 107°F [2][3]. July averages at the airport typically range from 81°F to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F [8], meaning temperatures in the 96–99°F range are not unusual and the 0% YES probability appears inconsistent with climatic norms.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for heatwave announcements from the National Weather Service, which often precede extreme temperature events [4]. Recent reports highlight that NYC has already surpassed Phoenix in heat, with LaGuardia hitting 104°F, indicating active monitoring of temperature spikes is critical as the settlement window approaches [3]. No moral judgment on trading is needed; the facts show that historical patterns and recent extremes suggest the market’s current probability may be misaligned with likely outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.