Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range you selected, while a NO share pays out if it does not. This market currently shows a 0% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the single range implied by that share, though the frontrunner outcome is 80–81°F at 27% odds[1].

Historical heatwaves in New York provide context for interpreting these odds. In a recent July heatwave, LaGuardia reached 102°F, with midnight temperatures hitting a record 94°F, breaking the 2013 record of 93°F[2]. Such extremes demonstrate that July temperatures in NYC can vary wildly, yet the current market leans toward the 80–85°F range rather than the 100°F peaks seen in past events[3]. This suggests traders expect a milder day, though the thin trading volume of $5,602 means the odds remain fragile and subject to rapid change[3].

Traders should monitor daily National Weather Service forecasts and operational heat advisories, as extreme heat can disrupt travel and influence local temperature readings. Delta Air Lines has already issued heat alerts for LaGuardia, noting that hot weather combined with operational constraints may affect flights[9]. While no specific announcement has been made for 5 July, the NWS Central Park forecast remains a key dependency for temperature expectations[3]. Any sudden shift in forecast models or unexpected heat spikes could quickly alter the frontrunner odds, making real-time monitoring essential for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.