Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in degrees Fahrenheit. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the selected range, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range; together, their prices reflect the crowd’s collective probability estimate for that outcome.

The current 0% YES probability for any specific range is inconsistent with historical July patterns at LaGuardia, where daytime highs regularly exceed 85°F. Recent heatwave data shows LaGuardia hitting 104°F on 2 July 2026, surpassing its 1966 record of 101°F, and setting a new midnight record of 94°F in 2023 [2][8]. Such extremes suggest the market’s current pricing may be misaligned with typical July climatology, where average highs range from 81°F to 99°F [9].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and real-time Wunderground updates for LaGuardia, as these are the official resolution sources. Any sudden shifts in forecasted heatwave intensity, cloud cover, or wind patterns from the East Coast could alter the day’s peak temperature. The Robinhood prediction market also tracks LaGuardia’s daily low for the same date, offering a complementary data point for temperature trend analysis [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.