Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak heat recorded at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the highest temperature will fall within the specified range, while a NO share means you expect it to be outside that range. The current crowd-implied probability of 3% YES suggests traders see an extremely low chance of reaching that temperature threshold, likely because July highs at LaGuardia typically stay below 100°F unless a severe heatwave strikes.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: LaGuardia reached 102°F on a recent Thursday during an East Coast heatwave, with midnight temperatures hitting a record 94°F on 4 July 2026 [1][3]. Yet July 2026’s forecast for LaGuardia shows daily highs ranging only from 81°F to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F [4]. This narrow band, combined with the fact that the 102°F record was an outlier, supports the market’s low YES probability—traders are anchoring on typical conditions rather than extreme spikes.

Traders should monitor upcoming National Weather Service heat advisories and any announcements from AAA regarding travel disruptions due to extreme heat, as these often signal intensifying conditions [7]. A sudden shift in the forecast toward the upper 99°F limit, or a new record-breaking heatwave announcement, could rapidly alter the probability. Watch the Weather Underground history page for LaGuardia daily updates, as real-time data there is the official resolution source [2]. No moralising is needed: the facts show the market is pricing in typical July heat, not record extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.