Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in degrees Fahrenheit, as measured by Weather Underground. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the outcome matches the selected temperature range, while a NO share wins if it does not. Here, the crowd assigns a 0% chance to the YES outcome, implying traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range marked as “Yes” (86–87°F).

Historical context suggests why this probability is so low. July in New York typically sees highs between 73°F and 91°F, with the average hovering near 84°F. However, recent heatwaves have pushed temperatures higher: on 4 July 2026, LaGuardia recorded 94°F at midnight, the station’s highest midnight temperature ever. This extreme warmth, which persisted into the night, indicates that while 86–87°F is plausible, it is not the frontrunner—traders now favour 86–87°F as the most likely outcome, assigning it 100% probability.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts and heatwave advisories from the National Weather Service, especially as July progresses. Recent reports from FOX Weather confirm that the East Coast heatwave has lingered, with LaGuardia reaching 102°F earlier in the week. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or precipitation could alter the day’s peak temperature. With the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 8 July, real-time updates from Wunderground will be critical for final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.