Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime heat expected at LaGuardia Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specific range offered by the market, while a NO share wins if it lands outside that range. Here, the crowd has assigned a 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the predicted threshold, despite the settlement window closing at noon on the settlement date.

Historical context frames this near-zero probability sharply. Just days prior, on 3 July 2026, LaGuardia recorded 104°F, shattering the 1966 record of 101°F by three degrees and marking conditions unprecedented for the modern era [1]. This heatwave simultaneously broke records across a 500-mile East Coast corridor, with LaGuardia also setting a new midnight high of 94°F on 4 July [2][7]. Given that July 2026 has already produced temperatures far exceeding the 86°F normal maximum for this date [5], traders are likely weighing whether the extreme heat will persist or if a cooling trend will intervene before the 9th.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports and any emerging forecasts for the northeastern United States as the primary catalysts [5]. Recent coverage highlights that the heatwave’s intensity was driven by a persistent atmospheric pattern that killed 29 people in New Jersey, indicating a high-risk environment for record-breaking temperatures [1]. While the market currently dismisses the YES outcome, the sudden nature of the July 2026 record breaks suggests that weather dependencies remain volatile, and any shift in the forecast could rapidly alter the implied probability before the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.