Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the temperature lands in a specific bracket—say, 85–89°F—whilst a NO share pays if it lands anywhere else. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, making the outcome verifiable and dispute-free once the day concludes.

New York City's June weather typically ranges from 75°F to 85°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The current 0% probability assigned to this market's YES outcome suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall outside a particular range—likely an extreme one. Historical June records at LaGuardia show a maximum of 96°F (set in 1994), with readings above 90°F occurring roughly once every five to seven years during this month. Understanding past frequency helps calibrate whether a given range is plausible or outlying.

Seasonal weather patterns and any emerging climate data will shape June conditions. The National Weather Service typically issues extended forecasts around early June, whilst longer-range models from late May onwards can hint at whether anomalous heat or cooler-than-average conditions are probable. El Niño or La Niña phases influence Atlantic weather systems and can shift June temperatures regionally. Traders should monitor meteorological outlooks released in the weeks leading up to settlement, though short-range forecasts (within ten days) remain more reliable than seasonal predictions made months in advance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.