Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the specific condition set (here, a temperature above a certain threshold), while a NO share pays out if it does not. This market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will stay below the threshold in question.

Historically, late June in New York often sees highs between 77°F and 99°F, with an average of 88°F, meaning extreme heat is not uncommon [6]. Recent forecasts for the week of 26 June 2026 indicated temperatures could reach 37–38°C (99–100°F) in eastern areas, with an amber extreme heat warning in force for Saturday [3]. This context makes the 0% YES probability appear unusually low, as comparable cases suggest the temperature could easily exceed typical thresholds.

Traders should monitor updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground, which will publish the official daily high for LaGuardia [5]. The Met Office has already flagged an amber heat warning for Saturday, 27 June, implying sustained high pressure and warm conditions through the weekend [3]. Any shift in forecast models or official advisories ahead of the settlement window could significantly alter the implied probability, so real-time weather bulletins are the key catalyst to watch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.