Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in any given temperature bracket represents a bet that the day's peak will land within that range; a NO share bets it will not. The settlement will draw from historical weather data published by Wunderground, making the outcome objective and verifiable after the day closes at noon UTC.

New York City's June weather typically ranges between 70°F and 85°F, though extremes are not uncommon. Historical data from LaGuardia shows that early June temperatures have occasionally exceeded 90°F during heat waves, whilst cooler years have seen highs remain in the low 70s. The current 0% implied probability across all ranges suggests either a technical issue with market initialisation or that traders are awaiting clearer range definitions before committing capital. Comparable June days at the airport over the past decade provide a useful baseline: the median high hovers around 78°F, with roughly one in four Junes producing a day above 85°F.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast for late May and early June 2026 will be the primary catalyst for trading activity. Seasonal patterns—including Atlantic tropical systems, high-pressure systems moving inland, and the onset of summer heat—typically influence early June temperatures across the Northeast. Traders should monitor long-range models from late May onwards, as these become more reliable within two weeks of the settlement date and often drive significant probability shifts in weather markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.