Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the day's peak temperature lands within a specific bracket—say, 82–86°F—whilst a NO share pays if it lands elsewhere. Traders are essentially betting on which temperature band will contain that single daily maximum reading, as reported by Weather Underground's historical records for the airport's official weather station.

New York City's June weather typically ranges between 70°F and 85°F, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 90s. Historical data from the past two decades shows that early June temperatures at LaGuardia rarely exceed 88°F, and readings above 90°F on this date are uncommon. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders are confident the actual high will fall outside whatever temperature range this particular market is tracking—a signal that the specified bracket is either unusually narrow or positioned at an extreme end of the seasonal distribution.

The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued five to seven days before the target date, will provide the most actionable catalyst for traders. Seasonal patterns matter here: early June sits just before the summer solstice, when solar intensity increases, yet Atlantic moisture patterns and jet-stream positioning remain variable. Any significant weather system—a cold front, tropical moisture surge, or high-pressure dome—could shift the outcome materially, making real-time meteorological tracking essential as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.