Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share pays out if it does not. With the crowd-implied probability for YES sitting at 0%, traders currently believe the temperature will not hit the designated range, suggesting expectations of milder conditions for this specific date.

Historical data frames this low probability, as Paris’s all-time record high is 42.6°C, recorded on 25 July 2019, while the hottest day in French history reached 45.9°C in southern France during a recent heatwave [1][3]. July 12 has not historically produced extreme peaks comparable to late July or August records, and current conditions show passing clouds with temperatures around 34°C (93°F) as evening approaches [2]. The absence of a historic heat spike on this exact date in previous years supports the market’s bearish stance on extreme highs.

Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Service (Météo-France) for any red heat-wave alerts issued ahead of the settlement window, as these announcements often precede temperature spikes [9]. The primary dependency is the daily report from Wunderground for Paris-Le Bourget, which will provide the official resolution figure once the day concludes [1]. Any sudden shift in atmospheric pressure or wind patterns from the north could alter the forecast, but until such catalysts emerge, the 0% probability reflects a lack of immediate evidence for record-breaking heat on this date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.