Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range you selected, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the range being offered, even though historical data shows July highs in Paris typically sit between 22°C and 28°C, with extremes reaching 43°C in 2019[3].

To interpret this 0% probability, one must look at comparable cases: Paris has experienced severe heatwaves where temperatures exceeded 38°C for several days, such as in 2019 when the city hit 43°C[3]. However, the average daily high in July is 26°C, and daily highs rarely exceed 32°C unless a heatwave is active[2][3]. The current market odds likely reflect a specific range that is either too low or too high compared to the ensemble forecast, which places the most likely outcomes between 29°C and 32°C[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts for Europe, particularly any announcements regarding heatwaves or high-pressure systems moving over western France, as these are the primary catalysts for extreme temperatures. Recent news confirms that Europe is currently suffering a brutal heatwave, with France recording its hottest day ever recently, indicating that climate change is supercharging heat events in the region[5][9]. If a similar heatwave persists into early July 2026, temperatures could spike well above the average, making the current 0% probability a potential mispricing if the selected range is plausible under such conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.