Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in any given temperature bracket pays out if that range contains the day's peak reading; a NO share pays out if the peak falls elsewhere. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, making this market a straightforward wager on observable meteorological fact rather than interpretation or opinion.

Early June in the Paris region typically sees daytime highs between 18°C and 24°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market's upper ranges to resolve NO, reflecting baseline seasonal norms rather than exceptional conditions. Historical records show that temperatures above 28°C on this date are rare but not unprecedented; the region experienced a notably warm June in 2022, when several days exceeded 25°C. Comparing this market to comparable European airport-station temperature markets reveals that crowd probabilities tend to cluster around historical median values, with outlier ranges receiving minimal backing unless a specific weather system is forecast.

Meteorological forecasts become actionable roughly 10 days before the settlement date, when medium-range models stabilise. Traders should monitor European weather services—particularly Météo-France and the UK Met Office—for signals of high-pressure systems or Atlantic frontal activity that could elevate or suppress temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday on 6 June, allowing final adjustments as morning observations confirm or contradict overnight forecasts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.