Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range selected by the trader, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. This particular market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will not hit the selected threshold, likely because it is set unusually high.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. Qingdao’s hottest recorded day reached 33.1°C on 9 August 2018, while typical July highs average around 29°C, with summer temperatures generally hovering between 25°C and 30°C [2][3][7]. Recent prediction markets on similar dates, such as 5 July 2026, resolved to 33°C as the highest temperature, indicating that extreme heat events are possible but not guaranteed [1]. Given these comparable cases, the 0% probability likely reflects a threshold set above 33°C, which would be an exceptional outlier for Qingdao in early July.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and any official announcements regarding heatwaves or extreme weather events in Shandong Province, as these act as primary catalysts for temperature spikes. China recently recorded its hottest month in recent history during July 2024, with national averages surpassing previous records, suggesting a broader trend of rising temperatures that could influence 2026 conditions [8]. While no specific announcement for Qingdao on 7 July 2026 has been made yet, the dependency on Wunderground’s official daily record means traders must watch real-time weather updates closely, as the resolution source will rely solely on the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.