Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, the San Francisco International Airport will record its highest temperature for the day, determining whether this prediction market resolves to YES or NO. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market asks whether the temperature falls within a specific range, with the current crowd-implied probability of YES sitting at 0%, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside that range.

Historically, San Francisco’s July highs at KSFO typically range between 67°F and 79°F, with the warm season averaging daily highs above 69°F from mid-June to late October [1][3]. However, recent patterns show variability: the first half of summer 2026 was the coldest since 1965, with an average maximum of just 67.6°F through 15 July [4], while past heatwaves have pushed the airport to 87°F, breaking the 1973 record of 85°F [5]. This 0% probability likely reflects the cool trend rather than an absolute impossibility, as extreme outliers remain meteorologically plausible.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather, which currently project a high near 75°F for 12 July, with intervals of clouds and sunshine [1][8]. Key catalysts include the passage of troughs north of the region, which can temporarily cool conditions, and the return of warmer air later in the week [6]. Since settlement relies on Wunderground’s official daily high for KSFO, any sudden shift in wind patterns or marine layer breakdown could alter the outcome, making real-time weather updates essential for informed positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.