Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the San Francisco International Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, a single real-world data point that determines how this weather market settles. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market is split across temperature ranges, so the 0% YES probability for any single range simply reflects that the crowd has not yet concentrated on one specific outcome, instead distributing bets across several plausible bands.

Historical July highs at KSFO typically cluster between 75°F and 82°F, with 78–79°F being the most frequent peak in recent decades, which aligns with the current frontrunner outcome of 78–79°F holding 93% of the market’s implied probability [1]. The next closest range, 80–81°F, carries only 6%, suggesting traders view a significant heat spike as unlikely given San Francisco’s marine climate and the usual moderating influence of Pacific fog in mid-July.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast for the Bay Area and real-time surface observations from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as shifts in wind patterns or a rare inland heat surge could alter the peak temperature [1]. No specific announcements or scheduled events are expected to drive temperature changes, but any sudden deviation from the typical coastal cooling trend—such as a strong high-pressure system over the Central Valley—would be the primary catalyst to watch before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July 2026.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.