Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected temperature range is correct, while a NO share pays out if it is not; here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the market description or range selection may be misaligned with likely conditions.

Historical July temperatures in Seattle typically range between 60°F and 75°F, with the airport often recording highs near 64–67°F during mid-month periods. Recent data from similar markets shows 64–65°F as the frontrunner at 68% probability, with 66–67°F next at 19% [1]. This pattern indicates that the 0% YES probability likely reflects a mismatch between the offered ranges and the crowd’s temperature expectations, rather than an actual belief that no temperature will occur.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the National Weather Service and real-time updates on Wunderground, the official resolution source, as these will clarify whether temperatures align with historical norms. No specific announcements or schedules are expected to alter the outcome, but sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or regional heat advisories could influence the final reading. Watching these dependencies helps assess whether the current probability will adjust as the settlement window approaches.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.