Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the specific condition you selected, while a NO share wins if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the temperature falling into the selected range, suggesting traders are confident the heat will stay outside those bounds. Historical data frames this probability: July in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 81°F and 89°F (27°C to 32°C), with average highs around 85°F (29°C) [3][9]. Recent forecasts for the region indicate temperatures could reach up to 36°C during early July heatwaves, though monsoon conditions often moderate extremes [5][6]. This context explains why the market leans away from lower temperature ranges, as summer heat in the capital regularly exceeds 30°C [1][7].

Traders should monitor short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which currently show cloudy conditions with temperatures around 26°C to 27°C and a 30% chance of precipitation [4][10]. The key catalyst is the East Asian monsoon transition, which can bring sudden rainfall and cooler air, potentially lowering the daily peak below 30°C [2]. Watch for official heatwave announcements, as the government may issue alerts if temperatures approach 35°C, which would signal a shift toward higher outcomes [5]. Additionally, Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon will provide the definitive data point for settlement, so real-time tracking of those readings is essential [1]. Since the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day, even a brief spike above the threshold could change the outcome, making continuous observation of weather models critical for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.