Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in South Korea. A YES share means you believe the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market; a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. Here, the crowd-implied probability of YES is 0%, suggesting traders overwhelmingly doubt the temperature will hit the target threshold, likely because historical data shows July highs in Seoul typically peak between 28°C and 35°C, rarely exceeding 37°C.

Historical records frame this low probability clearly. July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973, with an average nationwide temperature of 27.1°C, while Seoul itself reached 37.7°C in early July 2025—the highest early-July reading in 117 years [4][7]. Even during recent super-hot tropical nights where overnight temperatures stayed above 25°C for 22 consecutive days, daytime peaks in Seoul rarely breached 38°C [1][3]. Incheon, being coastal, often records slightly lower highs than inland Seoul, further reducing the chance of an extreme outlier.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time data from Wunderground, the official resolution source. Any sudden shift toward a prolonged heatwave, such as the record-breaking summer heat seen across Japan and South Korea in August 2025, could alter expectations [8]. However, with current conditions showing overcast skies and 77°F (25°C) at 2 AM on 10 July, and no major heat announcements issued recently, the 0% probability appears well-anchored in present realities [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.