Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak air temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 11 July 2026, which will determine the market’s outcome. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected temperature range contains the actual high, while a NO share pays out if it does not; traders buy these shares based on their forecast, and the price reflects the crowd’s implied probability. Here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome for the leading range, suggesting extreme doubt that the temperature will hit that specific threshold.

Historically, Seoul’s July highs typically sit between 29°C and 30°C, rarely exceeding 31°C, though extreme heatwaves have pushed readings to 37.8°C in early July 2023—the hottest in 117 years[2][6]. The current 0% probability aligns with this baseline, as most forecasts cluster around 30–32°C, with 31°C and 32°C as the frontrunners on other platforms at 37% and 33% respectively[1]. This fragmented pricing reflects genuine uncertainty: single-degree weather forecasts over a two-day horizon carry significant variance, and rounding rules (e.g., 26.4°C vs. 26.5°C) can flip outcomes[5].

Traders should monitor daily updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models, which currently align on a 26°C maximum for nearby dates but may shift as moisture-laden southwesterly flows and scattered showers evolve[1][5]. Key catalysts include official temperature announcements at 12:00 UTC on 11 July, real-time Wunderground data for Incheon, and any sudden changes in cloud cover or precipitation that could alter the peak by a degree[1]. Volume remains thin, meaning prices are highly sensitive to new model runs or official records before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.