Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range selected by the trader, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not match the narrow range offered, likely due to the high variability of summer heat in this region.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. July in Seoul typically sees daily highs rising from 81°F to 85°F (27°C to 29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C), though extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures significantly higher [5]. Recent years show a trend of intensifying summer heat; in July 2025, Seoul recorded 22 consecutive "tropical nights" with overnight temperatures above 25°C, breaking a century-long record [1][3]. The all-time national record for South Korea reached 41.0°C at Hongcheon, while Seoul itself hit 37.7°C in early July 2024, the highest for that period in 117 years [2][8].

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system, which drives hot, humid conditions in summer and can cause temperatures to soar to 35°C or higher [9]. Key catalysts include daily weather bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source for this market [2]. Since the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 12 July, the final reading depends entirely on the peak temperature recorded at Incheon Airport before that deadline, with no announcements or schedules able to alter the physical measurement once the day concludes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.