Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the range specified by the market’s resolution criteria, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the specific range offered.

Historical data frames this extreme scepticism. Seoul has seen record-breaking early July heat, including 37.8°C in one recent year—the hottest early July in 117 years [1][6]. However, July averages typically sit between 27°C and 30°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 33°C unless under exceptional heatwaves [5]. The current 0% probability may reflect confidence that the specific range in question is implausibly high, perhaps above 38°C, which has only occurred once in over a century.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as temperatures on 13 July will be confirmed hourly [market description]. While no specific announcements are scheduled for this date, regional heatwave advisories from the Korea Meteorological Administration often precede extreme temperatures [2]. The market settles at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026, so any temperature spike before that window will directly determine the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.