Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market invites traders to predict which bracket will contain that single daily maximum, measured in degrees Celsius. When you purchase a YES share, you're betting that outcome occurs; a NO share means you're wagering it doesn't. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any particular range resolving, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or that traders are still calibrating their positions ahead of the settlement window closing at midday on the date itself.

Seoul's mid-July climate is characterised by the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon and peak heat before the main rainy season. Historical records from Incheon show July maxima typically range between 28 and 33 degrees Celsius, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 35 degrees. The 2018 heat wave pushed temperatures above 39 degrees across South Korea, demonstrating that outlier scenarios remain plausible. Comparing recent July patterns—including 2023 and 2024 data from the same station—provides the most reliable anchor for assessing probability distributions across the available ranges.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in late June and early July 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which publishes monthly outlooks. Pacific typhoon activity during this period can significantly alter temperature trajectories; any tropical systems approaching the Korean peninsula would suppress daytime highs. Real-time forecast updates from Wunderground itself will become increasingly precise as the date approaches, allowing traders to adjust positions based on meteorological consensus in the final week.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.