Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected temperature range matches the official result, while a NO share pays out if it does not. This specific market resolves based on data from Wunderground for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, with settlement finalising at 12:00 UTC on that day.

Historical July temperatures in Seoul often exceed 25°C, with tropical nights—where temperatures stay above 25°C from evening until morning—becoming more frequent. The Korea Herald recently reported Seoul experienced its longest nighttime heatwave ever for July, indicating rising baseline warmth [2]. Despite this trend, the current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome on any specific range sits at 0%, suggesting traders are either uncertain or betting against a particular threshold being met, even as frontrunners like 27°C and 26°C hold 33% and 32% probability respectively on alternative platforms [1].

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time updates on Wunderground as the settlement window closes. No formal announcements are expected, but sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or urban heat amplification could alter outcomes. The market’s dependency on a single data source means any discrepancy in Wunderground’s reporting could affect resolution, making close observation of the station’s hourly logs essential as July 15 progresses.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.