Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the selected range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome for the specific range in question, suggesting traders believe that range is unlikely.

Historical July weather in Seoul typically sees average highs near 27°C, with humid afternoons often pushing temperatures higher [2]. Current market data shows 29°C as the frontrunner at 39% probability, followed closely by 30°C at 35%, indicating traders expect a warm but not extreme day [1]. This distribution frames the 0% YES probability as a reflection of the selected range being well outside the most likely outcomes, rather than a belief that no heat will occur.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from Korean meteorological services and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as conditions can shift rapidly with humidity and cloud cover [1]. While no specific announcements are scheduled for this date, the settlement depends entirely on the recorded high at Incheon Airport, so any sudden changes in regional weather patterns—such as monsoon activity or heatwaves—could alter implied probabilities before the 12:00 UTC cutoff on 16 July.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.