Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will land in a specific bracket; a NO share means it won't. This market asks traders to pick which temperature band will contain that day's peak, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground.

Seoul's July climate is characterised by monsoon season conditions and summer heat. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows July highs at Incheon typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes have reached into the mid-30s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market's highest temperature bracket to fall outside typical July norms, or that uncertainty about the exact range has suppressed early positioning. Comparable July days at Incheon over the past decade provide a baseline: most settle in the 29–31°C band, with occasional spikes above 33°C during anomalous heat events.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in mid-2026 could shift typical summer patterns. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during July occasionally influences Korean peninsula temperatures and precipitation, potentially affecting the final reading. Real-time forecasts become actionable only within 7–10 days of the settlement date, making early trades speculative bets on seasonal rather than weather-specific drivers.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.