Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded on 2 July 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range you selected, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance for the highest temperature to be in the selected range, suggesting traders believe that outcome is virtually impossible.

Historical data frames this probability clearly: July in Seoul is typically hot and humid, with daytime highs averaging between 25°C and 30°C, and occasional peaks nudging 30°C[3][5]. The market’s frontrunner is 27°C at 43%, followed closely by 28°C at 39%, indicating traders expect temperatures in the upper 20s rather than extremes[1]. Given that July is the rainiest month in Korea, with short but heavy downpours common, a sudden drop to unusually low temperatures is unlikely, reinforcing why the current probability for the selected range sits at zero[2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, which currently show a 60% chance of slight rainfall and temperatures feeling around 26°C[7]. The monsoon season (Jangma), lasting from late June to mid-July, often brings concentrated rain that can temporarily lower peak temperatures, though humidity usually keeps the “feels like” temperature above 34°C at midday[2]. Any official announcements regarding weather disruptions or shifts in the monsoon pattern could alter expectations, but current data suggests sustained warmth in the mid-to-high 20s is the most probable outcome[3][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.