Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event behind this market is the highest temperature recorded on 3 July 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome falls within the specified temperature range, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold in question.

Historically, July in South Korea is hot and humid, with daily average highs nearing 30°C and humidity levels often exceeding 80%, making conditions feel like over 34°C at midday [1]. The monsoon season (Jangma) typically runs from late June to mid-July, bringing short but heavy rainfalls that can temporarily lower temperatures [1]. However, meteorologists have warned that summer 2026 could be South Korea’s hottest yet, with Seoul reaching 37.1°C on 8 July—the highest July temperature since 1908 [7]. This precedent frames the current 0% probability as potentially premature, given the trend toward extreme heat.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which currently show clear skies with temperatures around 25°C and a 10% chance of precipitation [4]. Key catalysts include shifts in the monsoon pattern, as a delay could allow temperatures to spike further, and any official announcements regarding heatwaves. Recent reports from The Straits Times highlight the unusual intensity of this summer’s heat, reinforcing the need to watch for sudden temperature surges as the settlement window approaches [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.