Highest temperature in Seoul on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified bracket (here, 29°C), while a NO share pays out if it lands in any other range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders overwhelmingly expect the temperature to deviate from 29°C, despite Seoul’s July highs typically ranging between 29°C and 35°C.

Historical data frames this low probability: Seoul’s average July high is 29–30°C, but extremes have reached 37.7°C in early July, as recorded in 2023, and 41.0°C elsewhere in South Korea in 2025. The monsoon season (Jangma), active through mid-July, often brings heavy rain that can suppress daytime highs, yet high humidity may elevate felt temperatures. Recent reports note South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973, with average temperatures at 27.1°C, indicating a trend toward warmer conditions that could push highs above 29°C.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), particularly updates on cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and high-pressure system movements. A sudden shift in the North Pacific high-pressure system could trigger heatwaves, while prolonged rain may cap temperatures. The Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July, though after this market’s settlement, signals ongoing summer heat management efforts. With thin trading volume, even minor KMA forecast adjustments before noon KST on 4 July could sharply alter implied probabilities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.