Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the temperature falls within the specified range the market defines, while a NO share wins if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not land in the target bracket.

Historically, Seoul’s July weather is hot and humid, with average highs near 27–30°C and occasional peaks reaching 37.7°C, as seen in 2023 when Seoul hit its highest early-July temperature in 117 years of records[8]. Typical July days hover between 21°C and 28°C, but humidity can make it feel over 34°C at midday[1][2]. Given this range, the 0% YES probability may reflect skepticism that the temperature will fall into the narrow band the market specifies, especially since late July and August often bring more sustained heat than early July[3].

Traders should monitor short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration for cloud cover and precipitation, as July is within the monsoon season with frequent heavy rain showers[1][6]. Sudden rain can temporarily lower temperatures, while clear skies after rain may cause rapid warming due to lingering moisture[3]. Although no specific announcement is imminent, the Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July could influence local humidity and temperature patterns, making weather schedules and real-time Wunderground data critical for assessing shifts in probability[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.