Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in South Korea, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out if the temperature lands exactly within a specific one-degree band (for example, 27°C), while a NO share pays out if the temperature falls outside that band, covering all other possible values. In this case, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying traders believe the temperature will not match the specific band being offered.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. Early July in Seoul typically sees mean daily highs between 28°C and 30°C, with variance heavily influenced by the East Asian monsoon [2]. Recent years show extreme volatility: July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest since 1973, averaging 27.1°C, while the same month in 2024 saw Seoul hit 37.7°C, the highest early-July reading in 117 years [6][8]. Given this wide range, a 0% YES probability suggests the specific band offered is likely misaligned with the climatological norm, not that heat is impossible.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s 24-to-48-hour point forecast for Seoul on 6 July, as any shift toward 27°C or 29°C will redistribute probability away from the current band [2]. The market resolves at noon Seoul time, relying on Wunderground’s official daily maximum for Incheon Airport [2]. With total volume at just $2,192, the market remains highly sensitive to updated forecasts, meaning even minor changes in the KMA outlook could drastically alter implied probabilities before settlement [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.