Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this prediction market means you believe the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market; a NO share means you believe it will not. Currently, the crowd-implied probability of YES is 0%, suggesting traders expect the temperature to be outside the target range, though historical data shows July in Seoul is typically hot and humid, with average highs near 28°C and peaks reaching 30°C or higher, often feeling like 34°C due to monsoon humidity [1][2][3].

To interpret this 0% probability, traders should compare it against comparable cases: July is South Korea’s rainiest month, with 12 rainy days on average and heavy precipitation concentrated in central inland cities like Seoul, which can suppress peak temperatures despite high humidity [1][3]. However, when rain clears and sunny days emerge, temperatures can spike sharply, especially in the afternoon [1]. Key catalysts to watch include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for rain and temperature, as well as the timing of the monsoon season (Jangma), which typically ends mid-July but can extend late [1][6]. Traders should monitor daily weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for real-time temperature records at Incheon Airport [market description]. Recent forecasts indicate daily highs in Seoul ranging from 79°F to 94°F (26°C to 34°C), with an average high of 85°F (29°C), meaning the target range must be carefully assessed against these realistic extremes [5]. No moralising is needed; the facts show July 2026 in Seoul will likely be warm, with temperature volatility tied to monsoon activity and post-rain sunshine.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.