Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. For those new to prediction markets, a YES share profits if the temperature falls within a specific range the market defines, while a NO share profits if it does not; currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit that range.

Historical data frames this probability: Seoul reached a record 37.8°C on 8 July in an earlier year, the highest ever for the 1–10 July period since records began[1]. Yet, typical July averages in Seoul hover near 28°C to 30°C, with daily highs often closing to 30°C but feeling like over 34°C due to humidity[2][4]. The monsoon season, which brings heavy rain to central cities like Seoul, usually lasts from late June to mid-July, sometimes extending to late July, which can suppress peak temperatures on specific days[2][3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for rain and temperature shifts, as slight precipitation and 60% rain probability could lower the day’s peak[6]. The timing of the monsoon’s end is critical; if heavy rains persist into 8 July, the temperature may stay below the target range, whereas a sudden clear, sunny day could push it higher. Recent travel guides note that July is the wettest month, with umbrellas necessary daily, reinforcing the likelihood of cooler, rain-affected conditions[2][3]. No moralising on trading is needed; the facts show rain and humidity are the dominant catalysts for this date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.