Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share means you believe the temperature will land in a specific bracket (for example, 28–30°C); a NO share means it will not. The settlement will draw from historical weather data logged at that station, making this a straightforward factual resolution rather than a forecast requiring interpretation.

Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range. Historical data from Incheon airport shows June highs averaging 26–28°C, though peaks above 30°C occur in roughly one year in five during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see little confidence in whichever temperature bracket this market has assigned as YES, or the market may be newly listed with sparse participation. Comparable June days at the same station provide the clearest baseline: checking Wunderground's historical archive for previous 10 June entries and surrounding dates reveals typical variability between 24°C and 32°C depending on whether a high-pressure system or monsoon influence dominates.

The key variable is whether an early heat wave or tropical system affects the Korean peninsula in early June 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal forecasts in May, and any official warnings about anomalous heat or rainfall would shift expectations. Traders should monitor late-May weather pattern discussions and any official advisories from the KMA, as these often signal whether June will track warmer or cooler than the thirty-year average.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.