Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the peak temperature lands within a specific bracket; a NO share bets it lands elsewhere. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical records for that single day, making the outcome verifiable and objective once the date passes.

Seoul's early-June climate sits at the threshold between spring and summer, with mean highs around 24–26°C but considerable year-to-year variability. The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently see no meaningful chance of the highest temperature falling into whichever range this particular YES option represents—likely an extreme outlier, either unusually cold or hot for that season. Historical June data from Incheon shows typical highs between 22°C and 29°C, with temperatures above 30°C or below 18°C on a single day remaining uncommon but not unprecedented. The 2018 heat wave pushed Seoul to 30°C+ on multiple June days, whilst cooler years have seen highs remain in the low 20s.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly any alerts from South Korea's Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift June temperatures meaningfully. Real-time forecast updates in the week preceding 11 June will provide the most actionable signal, as medium-range models become more reliable closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.