Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market asks traders to predict which bracket will contain that single daily maximum, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out if you correctly identify the range; a NO share pays if you select any other range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date.

Seoul's early-to-mid June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and the onset of the East Asian monsoon season. Historical data from Incheon shows average highs around 24–26°C in mid-June, though variability is notable. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature bracket to favour, or the market's range definitions may be positioned such that no single outcome appears dominant. Comparable June days at Incheon have ranged from lows near 20°C on cooler, cloudier days to peaks exceeding 30°C during anticyclonic conditions. The current probability distribution reflects genuine meteorological uncertainty rather than consensus around any particular outcome.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns as June 2026 approaches. The timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset—typically occurring between late May and mid-June—will be the primary catalyst affecting temperature. Early monsoon arrival would bring cloud cover and precipitation, suppressing highs; delayed onset would favour warmer, drier conditions. South Korean meteorological forecasts and regional pressure systems in early June will provide the most actionable signals. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 13 June, after which Wunderground's recorded maximum becomes final.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.