Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share represents a bet that the temperature lands in a specific bracket; a NO share is the inverse wager that it lands anywhere else. This market settles based on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, which archives daily highs from the official airport station.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging from 26 to 32 degrees Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the temperature to fall outside the uppermost range bracket on offer. Comparable June 14th records from prior years show variability: the city experienced a 29°C high in 2023 and 31°C in 2022, reflecting the influence of monsoon patterns and occasional heat waves that can push temperatures several degrees above the seasonal mean. The current market pricing may reflect conservative expectations given the settlement window closes at noon local time, which captures morning and early-afternoon readings but excludes any late-day spike.

Traders monitoring this market should track South Korean meteorological forecasts released in the week preceding 14 June, particularly alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat advisories or unusual pressure systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift baseline temperatures upward or downward. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during early June may also influence whether monsoon moisture suppresses or amplifies heat accumulation near Seoul.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.