Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. This market asks traders to predict which bracket that daily maximum will occupy, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out if you correctly identify the range; a NO share pays if the temperature lands outside your chosen bracket. The settlement relies on historical weather data logged at Incheon's official station, accessible through Weather Underground's archives.

Seoul's mid-June climate sits firmly within early summer conditions. Historical records show daily highs in this period typically range between 24°C and 28°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 30°C during particularly warm years. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders view certain temperature brackets as implausible rather than unlikely—a reflection of how tightly seasonal patterns constrain June outcomes in this region. Comparable years offer useful anchors: June 2023 saw highs around 26–27°C, whilst June 2022 peaked near 25°C. Anomalous heat waves do occur but remain statistically rare for this month.

The primary variable affecting June 16 temperatures will be the position and intensity of the North Pacific high-pressure system, which typically begins its seasonal advance northward by mid-June. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, though more common later in summer, could introduce moisture and cloud cover that suppresses daytime highs. Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in early June 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead. Incheon's coastal location means sea-surface temperatures and marine layer effects also influence daily maxima, creating modest day-to-day variability even within stable pressure patterns.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.