Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Market context

On 17 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share represents a bet that the temperature will land in a specific bracket; a NO share is the inverse—a wager that it will fall outside that range. This market settles using historical weather data from Weather Underground, which logs hourly readings throughout each day. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, giving traders a fixed deadline to assess conditions as they develop.

Seoul's mid-June climate typically produces warm, humid conditions as the region transitions toward the summer monsoon season. Historical records from Incheon show average highs around 26–27°C in mid-June, though readings regularly exceed 28°C. The current 0% probability assigned to YES suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside whichever range is being priced, or that the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable June days at the airport station have occasionally reached 30°C or higher during heat waves, making extreme outcomes plausible rather than exceptional.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the East Asian weather pattern in early-to-mid June 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks in advance, which typically refine substantially in the five days before settlement. Traders should monitor whether high-pressure systems develop over the Korean peninsula during this period, as such patterns drive elevated daytime temperatures. Any tropical cyclone activity or unusual atmospheric blocking could shift outcomes materially, though such events remain difficult to predict beyond a ten-day window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.