Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

On 25 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share profits if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share wins if it does not. The crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the range in question.

Historically, Seoul’s June highs typically rise from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [1]. The hottest June ever recorded in South Korea reached an average of 22.9°C last year, the highest since 1973 [5]. Just days prior, on 19 June 2026, Seoul hit 91°F (32.8°C), the highest in this period [4]. These figures frame the current 0% probability as potentially misaligned with recent heat trends.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration and Wunderground updates for Incheon’s station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind can alter peak temperatures [3]. With the hot season lasting from late May to late September, sustained high-pressure systems could push temperatures beyond typical ranges [2]. Any official announcement of extreme heat warnings before 25 June would be a critical catalyst to reassess the market’s implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.