Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share wins if it does not; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to stay outside the target band.

Historical June climatology for Seoul shows daily highs typically rising from 26°C to 28°C, rarely dipping below 20°C or exceeding 31°C, with recent data confirming a high of 31°C on 19 June 2026[1][2][4]. The Korea Meteorological Administration reported that June heat shattered records across 59 stations nationwide, indicating a stable warm pattern that reduces downside risk from unusually cool days[9]. This baseline supports viewing the current 0% probability as a signal that the target range likely sits above recent peaks, not below them.

Traders should monitor the daily forecast from AccuWeather, which projects highs between 30°C and 33°C for late June, and watch for any sudden shifts in the stable weather pattern that could alter temperatures[6]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, so the final Wunderground reading for Incheon Airport will be decisive[1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the persistent humid conditions—averaging 68% relative humidity—mean even minor atmospheric changes could push temperatures beyond the expected range[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.